My Thoughts on Automation and the Future of Employment

Automation is something I've thought of for years.  For simplistic purposes I'll just define automation as the replacement of human labor with machines.  This can take the form of a robot in a factory, a kiosk at the airport or a computer answering your call to customer support.  In many ways automation is a good thing, doing dangerous or monotonous jobs while simultaneously lowering price and increasing quality.  However, it can also be a bad thing from an employment perspective.

A lot of the talk this last election was about "bringing manufacturing back".  A lot of the blame of the loss of manufacturing jobs was put on trade agreements, and no doubt they play a part, but automation has been perhaps the more powerful force in eliminating jobs.  Here's the good news and bad news, manufacturing has come back to America, the jobs just haven't followed.

A new factory filled with robots run mostly by Ph.D's from MIT is not what these voters are after.  When people talk about bringing manufacturing back, I think they're really referring to having a pool of good middle class jobs with decent pay and benefits that someone could potentially stay at for their whole career, "the American dream".  Traditional manufacturing is great for workers, but from the employers point of view automation makes a world of sense in that robots work cheap, don't take vacation and don't need a 401K, allowing them to be more competitive and deliver better returns to their shareholders.

“Shouldn’t the ultimate goal of a society be 100% unemployment?” —Doug Stanhope

That's one of my favorite economic quotes and it comes from a comedian.  It's actually kind of deep when you think of it and then think of the worlds Star Trek or the Jetsons presented to us.  Not a lot of manual labor or dirty work going on there.  I also think we overplay the fact that technology will make x,y,z obsolete.  The invention of the computer and the loss of the typewriter didn't make secretaries or paper obsolete.  Similarly, the invention of the tractor and modern farming displaced a lot of jobs, but these jobs were eventually replaced with jobs in fields that didn't exist 20 years earlier.

I think there may be a difference this time around from past advances in automation in that it is happening on multiple fronts instead of just one industry.  It's also being seen worldwide in cheaper labor markets such as China where FoxConn (maker of many of your favorite electronics) has laid off 60,000 workers replaced by machines.  Sure you need people to build and maintain the robots, but a lot of this can be done by robots too!

Examples are all around us.  Self driving cars are just on the horizon and could displace millions of truckers, cab drivers and others.  You can get a virtual financial analyst or have IBM's Watson diagnose your medical condition more accurately than most doctors,  Even the service sector, a place displaced factory workers often landed, is even under pressure with kiosks taking the places of people.  Even when factory workers seem like they are winning the battle they may be losing the war, such as Carrier keeping jobs in Indiana "for now" while simultaneously investing in automation that will likely displace many of them down the road.

There are ways to "create" jobs by using people rather than automation, a sledgehammer to kill a fly approach.  I remember in China seeing a dozen people on a street corner sweeping snow by hand, doing over hours what a single person in a plow could do in seconds.  I could see government doing such things, but could you really legislate private industry to be inefficient?

So is massive automation a bad thing?  I guess time will tell.  It appears there will be a future with less jobs than there are people.  We may have to look at things like earlier retirement or a reduced work week down the road from a financial perspective, but one has to wonder the psychological impacts of not working as well.  I also know the whole world claims to be too busy and we're dying of stress, poor eating and not exercising which we'd theoretically all have more time for if we worked less.  There'd also be more time for family, the arts and creativity.  Lots to think about as we go forward, just wanted to throw it out there to get other peoples thoughts as well.

The Day I Went to a Baseball Game with Craig Sager

It was with great sadness that I read of the passing of Craig Sager yesterday.  Having lost my own father to cancer last year I know how cruel the disease can be and feel so much for his family.  Here's my story about the day I met Craig and he took me to a Braves game.

Several years ago I was eating dinner with my buddy Jeff at Jock & Jills Sports Grill at Galleria in Atlanta.  It was my first time there and we picked it for dinner because of its convenient location, but little did we know our night was just getting started.  As we were eating our dinner a guy slid into our booth and just introduced himself as "Craig" (he looked so familiar).  He talked to us for a couple minutes and said he had free tickets to tonight's Braves game if we wanted to go.  We fully expected to just be handed two tickets and hear "have a good time guys, enjoy the company seats."  Instead, he said he had a party bus parked outside and get on ASAP because we were about to leave!

So we got on the bus and so did Craig and off to Turner Field we went with about 6 other people.  Honestly I don't remember much about the game, but I do remember how we sincerely felt like special guests the whole time.  Craig even went to the press box and got us the huge printed data packages they give reporters and broadcasters (which I still have today), but other than that he was just there as a fan that night, sitting in the stands like everyone else.  You normally think of Craig as a basketball guy first (and for his crazy suits, although he was dressed quite normal that night), but he was also huge in baseball.  I didn't know until yesterday he was even reporting on the field the night Hank Aaron broke the home run record.  It was a delightful night that I did nothing to deserve and I had to pinch myself a few times for the dumb luck that found me watching a baseball game with the Craig Sager.

Later we came to find out Jock and Jills was owned by Craig Sager and most of the people with us were his family and/or workers at the bar.  Craig gave us a story and experience I'll remember for the rest of my life, but I guess kindness like this to perfect strangers was totally in line with who he was.  Thanks Craig, may you rest in peace as you make heaven a bit more colorful.

How a Weekend at Bed and Breakfast Almost Turned Awkward

So Pam and I have become big fans of fun weekends away, guess it's the fun of not having kids yet.  Last year I was looking for a place over near Dawsonville, GA and went to my favorite travel site, Kayak.com.   These were the top 3 choices and the 3rd one "Paradise Valley Resort" look really nice complete with a pool and walking trails when you click on the description.  Looks pretty innocent right?

So I was about to call and make a reservation when I thought to Google it.  There you quickly learn, "Paradise Valley Resort & Club is Georgia's Premier Clothing Optional Resort!"  They even have a promotional video and events like a "clothing optional" 5K.  The website and video are pretty tame, but I guess we'll say "viewer discretion advised."

So I guess beware of listings on Kayak, Expedia and the such as evidently "nudist colony" wasn't important enough to make the description.  We ended-up at a nice bed and breakfast down the road, but it sparked some fun conversation with my wife and other couples as to what we would have done had we shown up with a reservation we couldn't cancel.  Stay and lock the doors?  Eat the loss and go down the street to a hotel?  I guess we'll never know what we would have done or the reaction to the surprise we would have had, but still makes for a good story based on this alone!

Marriage Advice From Famous People?

Volleyball Star Gabrielle Reece Ignited Controversy with Marriage Advice Saying Being ‘Submissive’ is a Sign of Strength.  I think many people read these verses wrong thinking this is only the job of the woman.  I even had Starting Point girls say that if they were expected to believe that they were walking.  I think we're all called to be submissive to each other, putting others before ourselves, husbands and wives.  Keep in mind although it doesn't say explicitly, "husbands be submissive to your wives" in the Bible, it does call on them to love their wives like Jesus loved the church.  Keep in mind he was willing to die for it, that's a far cry from woman get me a beer.  I think we're surrounded by selfishness and it's even encouraged in our culture, so anything contrary to it sticks out.  Well it's up to each couple to determine what works for them, but a little less selfishness is probably something we all could benefit from.

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Aaron Rodgers has an amazaing arm, Tom Wrigglesworth not so much...

The NFL schedule came out last night and the NFL draft is only a week away, so even though it's spring, I've got football on the brain.  Aaron Rodgers is a funny man from his photo bombing every captain's picture to his State Farm commercials to his witty tweets.  In one of those commercials you may have caught British comedian Tom Wrigglesworth.  I first saw Tom on the show Outrageous Acts of Science as a comedic scientific expert commentator (yep, he's funny and smart).  It was a few weeks later when some sports radio guys noticed a resemblance to Aaron Rodgers and then it took on a life of it's own when Tom got his own State Farm commercial.  You can see a video below where Tom visits Green Bay and frequently gets mistaken for Aaron.  It also gives you a flavor of the area where I grew up.



So Tom is a funny and smart guy, but I think Mr. Wrigglesworth would struggle to do this!

For Earth Day I'm Turning Over a New Leaf!

OK, I actually bought a new Leaf and I'm very excited!  I needed a new car as my old one was on the verge of needing several multiples in repairs more than what it was worth, so we decided to take the plunge.  I'd like to say it's all "green" thinking, but economics were a huge part with gas savings and the $12,500 in tax credits we'll get.  I've always been OK with owning "different" cars from my 1988 Hyundai Excel (before Hyundai was good) to a Mazda RX-8 with a rotary engine to a VW Jetta diesel, so I'm more excited than worried about owning a bit of an oddity.  The 84 mile range makes you plan a bit more, but the car is a cathedral to technology with all the creature comforts you could want in a commuter car.  I admit I have some initial range anxiety, but a fast charger for home and work with my predictable route should make that go away pretty quick.  I also pass a Nissan dealership going to work and I can always do a 5 minute quick charge there in a pinch.  Sure its a bit inconvenient, but the gas savings in our checking account and the $12,500 in tax credits in January will happily have me put up with a few inconveniences.

Me, Pam and Leafy

Speaking of tax credits, it's sad to see Georgia's $5,000 tax credit probably disappearing July 1st, but what's worse is the new $200 fee on electric vehicles up from $35.  The fee is meant to offset the lost tax from EV owners not buying gas and paying gas tax to fund the transportation budget, but I think the amount is a bit unfair.  $200 is more than the gas taxes paid by an average Georgia resident driving a large SUV getting 15 miles per gallon!  I agree EV owners should have to pay something, but $100 like a standard car seems much more reasonable.  I think the gas tax system worked great for a long time, the more you drove the more you paid toward road upkeep, but alternative fuel vehicles are a huge disruption to this system.  See the chart below to see what you pay in gas tax every year:

http://www.myajc.com/news/annual-gas-tax/

I love my Leaf already, Pam and I call her Leafy.  If you want a great car at a great price the Nissan Leaf is an awesome choice provided you can get over any "range anxiety" issues.  Well my electric car adventure begins, look for updates coming soon!

Who was the real Jesus?

As Easter approaches it's interesting to think of the real historical Jesus really was.  In Western culture he's often depicted as one step removed from a surfer dude, but based on the area of the world he was born in the reality was quite different.  In fact Jesus would probably stand a good chance of being "randomly selected" at airport security or a homeless guy.  So when you picture Jesus what do you see, the guy on the left or the guy on the right?

Of course there are a couple of funny Hollywood takes too:

As Easter approaches it's good to think about who the real Jesus was and maybe it changes how we view those who look a bit different than us.